Explaining Clinton's New Hampshire Victory: "I Found My Own Voice"

Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated. Last night's upset by Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary is nothing short of remarkable—if only because less than 24 hours ago, almost all of the pundits and rival political camps declared her dead on arrival. All of the polls were wrong and instead of a landslide by Barack Obama, the junior senator from New York managed a two point win. Narrow as it was—ask George W. Bush about the difference of several thousand votes—a win is still a win. Especially when it is not expected.

Some theories from Chris Bowers at Open Left:

• A last minute swing toward Clinton.
  
• Clinton had a superior, momentum-proof, absentee voting program.
  
• Bad poll weighting.
  
• Return of the lying white voter?

It's probably a combination of all of the above. Unfortunately, the last category will need to be analyzed further because Clinton won 4 of 6 key demographics and undoubtedly the Obama campaign are studying these. (The Iowa Caucus vote was a public vote, and, in traditional voting, people vote by secret ballot and do not feel pressured.) Or, maybe this was not a factor.  One thing is certain: The nomination will be fought state by state and will not be decided until Super Tuesday.

Clinton ran a superior ground campaign that counted on traditional meat and potatoes Democrats with big "D's": Union workers, lower middle class, factory workers, civil servants, etc. The largest group that turned out for Clinton were women—with 47 percent of all female voters, these were a virtual army of all age groups. Many interviewed say they supported Clinton because they didn't want her campaign written off after one or two states, and, most importantly, ever since the weekend, the candidate was looser and more emotional. You could almost say she was "liberated from" her defeat in Iowa, as Taylor Marsh describes it. Add to that the substantial outrage around automated robocalls from the Obama campagn and the feeding frenzy around a tired and stressful Clinton who almost teared up on Monday.

"I come tonight with a very, very full heart, and I want especially to thank New Hampshire," Sen. Clinton Clinton told her supporters in Manchester. "Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice. I felt like we all spoke from our hearts, and I am so gratified you responded. Now together, let’s give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me."

 

Comments

[Luther]

She may have found it, but, I still I won't vote for her. For the first time ever, I will be sitting out an election, as they are all just too smarmy and part of the problem and not worth a vote, since it will be the same old same, just a different face.

[Andy in Seattle]

Luther, if you're going to sit out every election with smarty, same ol' people... you won't be voting for some time. Until the process is freed of the corrupting influence of big money, it won't attract candidates of the total integrity that you seek. Not voting won't change that.

As for Hillary's win--it sounds more like the voters of New Hampshire simply wanted to continue the process, which is sane--why in hell should it be called after a single state, with 49 races to go? The process will only school Obama and Edwards and everyone else on the process, necessary for whomever gets the nomination. It is incredibly important that the Democratic nominee has skills and insight and abilities to win. This next election is just too important to lose.

[Andy in Seattle]

"Smarmy", that is, not "smarty." Smarty is what we NEED.

[Luther]

Andy, of course you are right, but, that said, I can't vote for someone who is as bad as Bush in my book, and, that would be Clinton. Her husband had the gall to get ticked off and, start defending her on Iraq, when he did nothing about the genocide in Rwanda, just like she has done nothing to try and stop in Darfur. I have many reasons as to why I vote for people, and, one is character, and, I don't see Hillary as having any, maybe that's just me but she is as much a problem in DC as anyone else, just what has she done to make the country better? Nothing, she has been running for president since she moved to New York and got into office. None of these candidates are worth a vote for me, which is sad, as I said I would never miss a vote, no matter how insignificant it was after hearing my grandparents tell me how they were not allowed to vote.

I am also annoyed at the fact that these two tiny states that are not reflective of the USA as a whole are deciding who gets the chance to run, that is not democracy in my book on any level.

[Tyler Grey]

Andy, you're absolutely right. Luther, surely you said that in jest? Who can afford to sit out the primaries or the elections, especially gay men, black gay men and lesbians, and progressives hoping to build a post-Bush era. Not participating is not an option.

I'm an Obama supporter but am happy Hillary's campaign moves forward. We need choices in the party and need everyone to have a say. None of us can rest on our laurels. And none of us can afford to sit at home and make sarcastic, self-defeating comments about the process.

[anon]

Luther, these "two small tiny states" are NOT deciding the process. It's moving forward and states like California, Illinois, Georgia and South Carolina are about to have their say.

The two party process is what we have. Obama, Clinton, Edwards and Richardson are the leading Democratic candidates and surely you can find something to appreciate in one of those.

One more thing. You're wrong about who began running for the White House as soon as they arrived in Washington. Hilary has been in the Senate since 2000 and begun her run for president last year around this time, after her re-election. Obama has been in the senate since 2004 and pretty much began running for president about a year or two after he arrived.

[chris w]

Good analysis, Rod.

I'm glad that you kept everything in perspective last week when you said not to count the Clintons out, and, made subtle reference to the media love fest around Saint Barack.

[Cadence]

Luther, those two states aren't deciding who gets to run, despite what the polls and bloggers would have you believe. As NH voters showed, the only thing that matters is people showing up and casting votes. It would have been easy for H. Clinton supporters to believe the media hype and stay home yesterday, but they showed up in force, despite reports stating she didn't stand a chance of winning.

Polls are non-sense. The same polls that showed Obama ahead by 10% had him behind by 20% just a few weeks ago. So, common sense should have told people that it was all just media hype. Unless the media can talk to everyone who will vote, you pretty much can't glean too much out of the few hundred people who they do talk to. The anti-Hillary campaign of the past few days was do more to people not liking her, and Obama's amazing margin of victory in Iowa, than to how people might really vote.

Now the question is will Obama's supporters give up, or will they be like Hillary's and see that this thing is far from over.

[Luther]

Thanks to those who clarified a few of my misunderstanding of this whole process works, which I have to admit, I find somewhat silly instead of one date when all 50 states vote from a field of candidates instead of all this nonsense about Iowa and New Hampshire since they are not at all reflective of America. That said, I guess I just don't like Hillary Clinton on any level or anything that she utters, so, will have to sit it out f she is the candidate. Some say this will only help the GOP, but, I for one am tired of voting for the lesser of two evils and still get stuck with no change for the better no matter which insider wins.

Its just a shame that there is never a viable thrid option.

Although the SC race is going to be a wee bit more interesting, race, "faith," and money or lack of it by some of the electorate all in play, the real America.

[chris w]

Here is a question for Rod. Have you made any endorsements yet or will you make one?

[J Matt]

Great reporting and commentary, Rod. As always. I love the fact that you give the news...and even if we all have our opinions in all of this, you still give it with such class. I'm going public to say: Horray for Hillary! And yes, I am black and a male. I know - sounds funny, but it's true. LOL

[A. Ronald]

J Matt, there are many black men and women who are pulling for Hillary. I'm a Hillary man. It's nothing against Barack, I just think HRC is a stronger candidate. But I wish them both the best, we had so many great candidates to choose from.

[Alan T]

Luther, a national primary would be a great idea and probably less expensive, too.

[BL]

>>> Have you made any endorsements yet or will you make one?

I'm sure the glowing Hillary reviews have nothing to do with the ad for Hillary Clinton's book over in the ad strip.