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16 June 2008



Do you think this and other polls will increase pressure on Obama to put Hilary on the ticket??

Rod Mc

Good question.

I don't think so. Many polls in OH, PA, MI show Clinton on the ticket would definitely help. This NV poll was split. Obama, Pelosi, etc clearly do not want HRC on the ticket, so, it not happen anyways.

The Clinton brand remains very popular in CA and the southwest. Obama can pro-actively market his candidacy and reach out to Clinton voters or continue to bleed voters.


I was just wondering I think he should put her on the ticket because she helps with the big Rust Belt states with older women and with Hispanics but I could be wrong. I love your blog by the way


I was thinking Barack won the Nevada caucuses, but in actuality, Hillary did "win" Nevada, but Barack got more delegates. Interesting...


James, give it a rest. Obama has clinched the nomination and some of you are still harping on the same bs. Clinton won the popular vote in Nevada and Texas but Obama received more delegates. Now, to 'win' a state in the presidential election, you need a simple majority of the popular vote and its winner takes all of the electoral votes.

So, yes, winning the popular vote goes a long way towards electability, as the polls keep showing. If significant numbers of people are undecided or don't vote, it lowers you popular vote total. It's still very early, but almost almost a third of Democrats not supporting Obama in a swing state should concern many people.

Rod Mc

JAMES ATL Kid is right. We're in the general election now and it's silly to play the 'delegates vs popular vote' game. Especially because in the GE there are no delegates awarded and winner of the state's popular vote takes all of the electoral votes.

ROBERT Thanks for the kind words, I am glad you enjoy the blog. You are absolutely right. Obama is going to have major problems in the rust belt w/ women, white men and older voters, and, in the southwest with Hispanics, women and older voters. Many polls show HRC on the ticket is clearly a win, but, it will not happen.

This week there are several state surveys and national polls that show Democrats are bleeding voters. The reasons are very obvious and it's not a very promising trend to begin the GE.

Jose S

Thanks for the Nevada polls. Are the New Mexico numbers out yet.


HRC can't be on an Obama ticket and she made that happen.

Her separation from him in pivotal moments, when they could have looked like there was some cohesion, make her VP ridiculous. Waiting almost a week to "endorse" but not "concede" so plays into the HRC as bulldog.

I had so many talks with friends (including Rod) about a dream ticket and wish that could have happened, but that's dead. It ain't happening and I wouldn't want it to because she feels untrustworthy to me as at that level, like she'd never "concede" to him as President.

But with Gore on-board and even some conservative Republicans saying that they are leaning towards Obama, this is a non-issue. I think that the research shows that many of Presidents came into office, at times as bad or worse than now, with less national experience.

WE SAY WE WANT CHANGE AND THIS IS WHAT CHANGE LOOKS LIKE. I really feel like so many people are coming after Senator Obama in the media because if he wins, they are screwed because he and his campaign are not beholden to anyone. He didn't pay street money in Philly. He isn't connected with the major lobbyists, but is raising money dollar by dollar from the people.



C. Baptiste-Williams

CNN just posted a national poll this weekend that had Obama in the lead.

i think none of them matter, regardless of the what any poll says every vote is important


C. Baptiste, there is a big difference between a NATIONAL poll and a STATE poll. This is a post on one particular STATE poll and Rod often posts NATIONAL polls. The election is won STATE by STATE so the STATE polls are very important.

Some of you Kool Aid drinkers obviously know nothing about general election politics. You dismiss polls that don't tell you what you want and trumpet polls that have nothing to do with the topic. All the recent polls show Obama is losing Democrats and McCain runs very competitively with him. Maybe we should be, umm, concerned.


Rod, thanks for posting the new LVRJ numbers. As you know, I live in Las Vegas and have left a number of posts throughout the primaries. You've been right all along that Hispanics would be a key issue in the fall.

I'm undecided about how I'll be voting in November. My choice is not on the ballot and that seems to be a strong feeling among the chicano community here. Rev Kev, I love your commentary and our thoughts, but, you might not understand that many Hillary supporters do not want her on the ticket either. Let Obama sink or swim on his own, with 29 percent of Nevada Democrats not supporting him so far, he is barely treading water.


face it, obamabots:

Ya boy has an UPHILL battle leading to november...

his camp keeps claiming he can win WITHOUT hillary's supporters...YET, he can't seem to come out ahead in pols in states that Hillary WON in terms of the popular vote (James: that electoral vote bullshit is that..BULLSHIT. Will Obama-la be able to say that in november, knowing full well the POPULAR VOTE determines the president? or, can you see that reality from the rock you crawled out from underneath to grace us with your so not relevant presence? thought so)...

Obama is going to seriously need to appeal to white voters in these states and women in these states, as well as:
Regan/Swing State Democrats
White Women
Independent Voters
Centrist Republicans and Centrist Democrats

It was cute for him to play the "I'm For Change" card during the primaries...now, the real work begins and he better be talking about how to win these voters over who didn't vote for him in the primaries...those folk went for the candidate who could BRING RESULTS and wasn't focused on flowery and quite empty intellectual rhetoric--they voted for Clinton, they voted for McCain, hell, they was votin for Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich long after they dropped out the race.

So, instead of talking about how those pols dont mean anything--which THEY DO since they're showing that obama isn't pulling ahead of mccain like people thought--let's talk about strategies to ensure that Obama-la is sworn in as President come January 2009..shall we?

Or, will you obamabots still talk about primary electoral math, why hillary is an evil shrew who didn't drop out sooner, why the republicans are attacking the "chosen one", or why you don't understand why michelle is being attacked by everyone...

I want to give you sycophants the benefit of the doubt and go with the former, but I know that's too much to expect, so i'll fall back and expect the latter.

And, James, you just proved me right with the comment you made about electoral primary votes in nevada..it's ok, boo...reading is FUNdamental, not FOR the mental..mkay?

and, I dont want Clinton on the ticket either...that's just pointless for her...


At this point Obama should be up by double digits in the national polls and in Nevada in particular. It doesn't take a brain scientist to know that Obama is going to do more than just talk to win this election.


I pray, and as a preacher I know how to do that, that now is saying that the Democratic Party and Obama can win this race "without Hillary's supporters." That would be an absurd statement (not suggesting that it was made here, but concerned if it was made, period.)

The greater concern for me, as a Black man, is that flagrant numbers of people who are just willing to say, without pause or thought, that they would not vote for Obama, simply because he is Black. This is so much more insidious than simply THE NEW KID ON THE BLOCK, because we've seen new kids on the block have their shine and time in DC politics. With Scott McClellan's new book, I am, however, gravely vexed by the politics of language and perpetual campaigning that have so moved beyond the borders of the beltway and into commonplace language. We are talking like they talk. I want change. I want to do away with Bush politics and the insulting way that the American public is treated by politicians who think they are know all about the greater good.

I would have stood with Senator Clinton had she became the nominee, because, as I have professed and protested, I am for...SAY IT WITH ME PEOPLE...a McCain-Free America!

I can't even believe that I have to have conversations with people for whom McCain shows nothing but disdain, about not voting for him vs. Senator Obama. It's just wild to me.

Rod linked to a Sirius radio exchange with one of their hosts and a gay listeners who vehemently stated that he was "uncomfortable" voting for Obama and that there was "just something about him." At the end of the day, that "something," when stated by people, white or black, gay or straight, lesbian or bisexual, transgender or transitioning across party lines, is so unnerving that it sinks into my belly and literally causing me anguish.

I can't believe that we, the People, aren't simply mobilizing for change. The fact that so many supporters of other candidates and opponents of Senator Obama, for whatever reason, continue to espouse this "I am taking my toy and going home" stance is troubling. At the end of the day, I want change and I am praying, yes, but working and talking and helping, I hope in some small way daily, to bring that change in my church, my family, my township.

I am with you Ryan. Let's talk about strategies to insure that Senator Obama becomes President-Elect Obama. Let's use all of this brilliance and brain, fervor and fire, life and listening, and this space that Rod continues to keep open and activated, to say something that's going to move beyond what the facts have already shown.

Senator Obama is the nominee.

We are the people.

What are we going to do?

You are so masterfully right, Duwayne, at this point Obama should be farther ahead, but I feel that because all of our conversations are so rhetorically behind, we aren't making any real progress in the process. The double-digit undecided numbers means that people are really torn. I hope that those torn voters are googling and researching, reading and pondering, and looking to see what the conversations are that the people are having. I hope to leave them with something more than just back-biting and infighting.

Antonia, thank you for loving my insight. It's part of who I am to listen and I swear to you that I hear you that you don't want HRC on the ticket, so that this man MUST show and prove who he is. I wrote an op-ed piece called "OBAMANATION: THE SENATOR'S UNACCEPTABLE STANCE ON MARRIAGE EQUALITY" that was not a lovefest for the Senator and is still something that I bring up in every conversation, conference call and concern that I have about the good Senator. I am at the table on this issue and others, screaming it out and not letting it die or slide. Change means progress and progress means forward and I am not going to let the Senator speaks and reek CHANGE and then be stale and stalled on issues of concern to my life.

So I love the voicing and the such, but I hope that as we move forward, we move forward.

I am seriously so inspired and fired up by the exchange that Rod 2.0 generates. I think that there are some genius thinkers here, engaging and engrossing me in this exchange.

Ryan Canty

Marcus: I'll "step above" statements like that if you admit to the fact that you bashed clinton with republican obama speak during the election...

what? I didn't think so...

James deserved the comment I gave him..and for it being beneath me...hardly. you and the other obamabots are capable of way MORE insidious and have posted vile comments on this site worse than the comment I gave james...

so no marcus, that comment isn't beneath me at all. :)

Gee Gee

Ms Ryan Canty, kick rocks! Republicans are so hateful. I wish I could meet one with a personality and some empathy...

Kool Aid reference(key word: Nigger)

You could have kept the kool aid reference.


When you look at the electoral college map from the last few elections, NV has been a toss up state. It went for the GOP in the last two elections and went for Bill when he ran.

For Obama to be so close in the polls at this point is actually good. We have about 5 months until the election. There is plenty of time for the people of NV to realize that McCain is no good for people who align with the ideas of the Democrats.

Obama is leading in all of the most recent national polls with a lead outside of the margin. He is leading big among women and Hispanics and the only subset that he is only slightly behind is among suburban women. These are women who are still "Bitter" over the election, but they will come around once some time has passed and they calm down.

One they find out that McCain has already said that he would appoint Supreme Court judges in the vain of Roberts and Alito and that a vote for McCain would eliminate a woman's right to reproductive choice, they will come around to Obama. (sorry for the long sentence)

Even Vincent Gallup (owner of the company that does Gallup polls)said that its too early to take any stock in the polls since people are waiting for the general election to get into full swing before really getting behind a candidate.

If you put John McCain up against Obama in a debate, with all of the recent flip flopping that McCain has done, I am sure that Obama will go up in the polls considerably

C. Baptiste-Williams

GREG G i know quite alot about elections... i personally feel the results can be interpeted in any way that helps whomever the reporting body wants to.

there were several cases in the primary elections where the polls were wrong.

I personally dont want people to get dismayed by a poll and feel as if their vote won't matter because the other person is up by 30% or that they dont need to vote because the other person is down by 30%. Every vote is needed.


MORRIS YOU were NOT mentioned in my comment so your second comment was a hostile, off-topic rant that was deleted. ANOTHER commenter who comments under different names WAS mentioned. It had absolutely nothing to do with YOU. Please acknowledge your mistake or you will also be prevented from future electability discussions.

"BROKE" Your comments here are fine but the message you left in the Puerto Rico post was racist, offensive and used an extremely derogatory word to describe women. I've tired of your ghetto comments. You are banned.

"JAKE"/MARCOS/ETC Since you dismissed this poll as meaningless, comment no further in this post or any other post regarding polls and electability. This was one poll for one state for one week and it was silly for you to post data on different surveys to try to refute the findings.

This is the second time you have been warned about your obsessive desire to try to fact check this blog. Going forward, use only one name and avoid all future posts on polls and electability.

ED It's very interesting that you and so many others pretend there is not a party split. The DNC is broke, the Denver Host Committee is broke and most of the polls show significant numbers of Democratic defections. Sounds like a problem to me. Obama's chances are good in the fall, but, given the unpopularity of Bush, the Republican brand, Iraq, and the media Obama love fest, he should be polling much higher. IMHO, continuing to pretend there 'are no problems' does not help Obama.

The comment about Clinton's voters being 'bitter' was not necessary. It feeds the stereotype that all Clinton supporters are 'emotional' women.


MORRIS Re-read my comments. Your name was never mentioned and another commenter was clearly identified. I'm not going to debate this. You said you made a mistake and mistakes happen, so the apology is accepted.

This thread is closed. It's taking too much effort to get the conversation on topic.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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