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Clinton Endorses Obama, Ends Historic Candidacy on Saturday

The New York Times and FOX News report Hillary Clinton will suspend her 17-month, historic candidacy on Saturday. Below the fold is the text of the email sent yesterday from the Clinton campaign that details her rally in Washington for staff and supporters, and, will formally endorse the nomination of Barack Obama.

Longtime readers of Rod 2.0 will know that we began chatting up Obama as a presidential contender when the site debuted in Ocober 2005 and May 2006. Obama and Clinton are terrific candidates, but, we said several times during the primary season that we believed Clinton was the more formidable general election candidate and much stronger on the issues, especially universal health care, education, the sub-prime lending crisis and the economy. Clinton would have expanded the map and handed McCain his hat in a landslide, picking up states such as Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee, Nevada and New Mexico, and, crushing the Republicans in the entire Ohio River Valley. Clinton's popularity in Appalachia, the Ozarks and the Southwest is almost unprecedented for a modern Democratic presidential candidate. These are states Democrats won before and can win again ... with the right economic and security message.

Clinton ran the weaker primary campaign and the first two and a half months were mismanaged, without a message, and underestimated the appeal of Obama.  Deciding not to contest the February caucuses and Wisconsin was the fatal mistake of the campaign. On the other hand, after recalibrating in March, Clinton emerged as a superb candidate with a populist, solutions-oriented message. Clinton's March thru June run was remarkable because the pundits have effectively said since February that 'she couldn't win' and, well, you know those 'silly, stupid voters.' With the exception of North Carolina and Oregon, Clinton has won almost every major contest since March and cleaned Obama's clock in contest after contest, sometimes spectacularly so, such as 30 and 40 percent margins in Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico, and, despite being outspent by as much as three or four to one. Ironically, this plucky spirit has earned her the respect and admiration of many Republican politicians and strategists who once despised her.

Clinton leaves the campaign with a bang and won South Dakota on Tuesday, another state strongly favored for Obama. Clinton ran on economic and Native American issues, and, energized turnout to defeat a ballot initiative that would have restricted abortion choices. Obama outspent Clinton and appeared in commercials with former Senator Tom Daschle, who remains as unpopular in South Dakota as he was on Capitol Hill during his disastrous stint as Senate Majority Leader. Daschle is despised by many within the Native American community and was probably a liability.

The Democrats fielded an excellent primary field but this unfortunately became the ugliest Democratic primary season in recent history. Clinton hate used to be exclusive to Beltway pundits and right wing talk radio and this primary season, the cable 'news' networks, the Obama campaign and the 'progressive' blogs ramped it up to hysterical proportions. Instead of a primary contest between two strong candidates, the contest became racialized and Clinton was presented as the villain who was trying to 'stop the first black man from becoming president'. This was vintage Daley-Axelrod-Jesse Jackson Jr. Chicago style primary politics. The sexist comments and misogyny that passes for punditry and commentary remains beyond pathetic. As a result, the party is split on class, gender and racial lines and and will require some heavy lifting by Obama and his team to put it back together. It will not be easy but it can be done.

Not sure what Clinton's next move will be. Months ago, when Clinton was ahead, a unity ticket seemed the way to go. Since then, we've repeatedly said that is not going to happen. At this point, besides asking for some recognition for her campaign and its approximately 18 million voters, Clinton probably wants to take a long weekend and sleep in. She will campaign for Obama in the fall if and when she is asked.

Clinton's email message after the flip.

DNC "Compromise": Full MI and FL Delegations with Half-Vote

To widespread jeers and boos that demonstrates the deep divisions within the party, the Democratic National Committee approves a deal that seats the full delegations from the disputed Florida and Michigan primaries with half a vote each.

The hearings were publicized in a contentious meeting of the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, but, the deal was reached after the members met for three hours behind  closed doors. (Talk Left live blogs hearings here, here and here.) The "compromise" was voted on publicly in a raucous session. The RBC unanimously agreed to seat the Florida delegation based on the outcome of the January primary, "with 105 pledged delegates for Hillary Clinton and 67 for Barack Obama, but with each delegate getting half a vote as a penalty."

The sticking point was Michigan, where Obama, John Edwards and Bill Richardson removed their names from the ballot. Clinton's camp insisted Obama should not have received any pledged delegates and wanted 73 pledged delegates with 55 uncommitted who were free to vote for Obama. The Obama camp insisted the only "fair" solution was to split the pledged delegates in half between the two campaigns, with 64 apiece.

After the jump, more on the "compromise".

Obama Resigns from Trinity UCC

Barack Obama resigns from Trinity United Church of Christ.

Lynn Sweet at the Chicago Sun Times: "The Obama campaign in not confirming that Obama quit his church—but not saying the reports are wrong. Obama 'will answer questions this evening,' an Obama top adviser just told me."

The resignation comes just days after a visiting pastor and longtime friend of Obama delivered a blistering sermon that demanded reparations for slavery and attacked the "white establishment." Father Michael Pfleger, who is white, ridiculed Sen. Hillary Clinton, accused her of "white entitlement" and was loudly applauded and cheered by the congregation. Pfleger, mocking Clinton's misty-eyed moment in New Hampshire, pretended to speak in her voice, saying, "I'm white, I'm entitled, there's a black man stealing my show!" Watch Pfleger's rant:

"Thank God for the message and thank God for the messenger," said Trinity's new pastor, Rev. Otis Moss, after Pfleger's race-baiting.

Pfleger's sermon and longtime association with Barack Obama reignites concerns about Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the inflammatory former longtime Trinity pastor and the presidential candidate's longtime spiritual advisor. Obama said in a statement he was "deeply disappointed" with Pfleger, but, did not specifically address Pfleger's personal attack on Clinton. (Pfleger's sermon mirrored Wright's infamous Christmas Day sermon attacking the Clintons, also never addressed by Obama.) On the other hand, Sen. John McCain denounced Pfleger's attack from the pulpit as "unwarranted, uncalled for and disgraceful." This is the third time in recent weeks the presumptive Republican presidential nominee has spoken out.

The Archdiocese of Chicago and Cardinal Francis George have muzzled Pfleger.

More OBAMA
More JEREMIAH WRIGHT
More POLITICS

Some Background ...
Obama "Outraged" by Wrights' "Ridiculous" "Rants" [R20]
 Wright at the National Press Club and Detroit NAACP [R20]
Wright on PBS: Obama "Says What He Has to Say as a Politician" [R20]
NC GOP Targets Dems with Obama/Wright Attack Ad [R20]
Teddy Endorsed Obama to Preserve JFK's Civil Rights "Legacy"? What Legacy? [HuffPo]
Obama's "A More Perfect Union" Speech [R20]
Obama and the Turban Non-Story [R20]
PA Debate: Meltdown and Morning After [R20]
"Bitter" Billionaire Fundraiser" [R20]
Obama Camp Provides Photo of Wright and Clinton [R20]
Obama to Make "Major" Speech on Race [R20]
Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Black LGBTs [R20]
McCain Aide Suspended, Circulating Wright Video [R20] 

Clinton Wins Kentucky By 35%+

A stunning win for Hillary Clinton in Kentucky. The New York senator wins at least 36% of the vote in Bluegrass State. Last Tuesday, the senator won West Virginia by 41 points. These point spreads are unprecedented for modern presidential primaries, especially for so late in the primary roster.

At 10:00PM ET, the rough total is Clinton 459,000 to Barack Obama's 209,000.

The exit polls reflect the same skew seen in Clinton's landslides in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and, to a smaller extent, Ohio. Clinton runs the board: Clinton wins ALL women (57% of the vote) 67-27. Clinton wins ALL men (43% of the vote) 62-32. Clinton wins ALL age groups.  Clinton wins religious voters, liberals, moderates, conservatives and independents. Clinton wins every income level by 30 points or more. Clinton wins more than 80 percent of rural voters. This was a thumpin'.

Chris Matthews and Tim Russert on cable "news" network MSNBC LIED and claimed Obama won the youth vote. He did not. Clinton wins the 17-29 group by 20 points. Clinton also won the 17-29 demos in PA and WV, which Matthews also LIED about. MSNBC has become a joke.

As evident in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, Obama's association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright continues to demonstrate problems for the general election. "Nearly 55 percent of Democratic voters said Obama shares the most controversial views of Wright and those voters went for Clinton 84 percent to 9 percent over Obama." The Obama campaign also bought Christian-themed advertising and sent Christian-themed mailings to voters and this apparently didn't help change minds.

Just like in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, the Obama campaign outspent the Clinton campaign in Kentucky by an estimated 3 to 1. Obama did not campaign in West Virginia and Kentucky but he definitely should have made the effort. It probably would not have changed the results very much, but, since Barack Obama is the likely to become the Democratic nominee, it is important to show that he is reaching out to voters where he is not favored. These are states Democrats can win in the fall.

Clinton and Obama Issue Bland Statements on CA Marriage Ruling

The Democratic presidential candidates release bland responses to the landmark ruling on same sex marriage by the California Supreme Court.  Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama spoke on the subject at  their press availability or issued direct statements. Both of the statements were released by spokespersons and leave much to be desired.

First, the lukewarm response from the Clinton campaign:

Hillary Clinton believes that gay and lesbian couples in committed relationships should have the same rights and responsibilities as all Americans and believes that civil unions are the best way to achieve this goal.

As President, Hillary Clinton will work to ensure that same sex couples have access to these rights and responsibilities at the federal level. She has said and continues to believe that the issue of marriage should be left to the states.

And the tepid response from the Obama campaign:

Barack Obama has always believed that same-sex couples should enjoy equal rights under the law, and he will continue to fight for civil unions as President. He respects the decision of the California Supreme Court, and continues to believe that states should make their own decisions when it comes to the issue of marriage.

On the issue of constitutional amendments, Senator Obama has been on record for some time: He opposes all divisive and discriminatory constitutional amendments, state or federal. That includes the proposed amendments in California and Florida.

Both of the Democratic candidates have equally strong records on gay and lesbian issues (PDF). It's too bad neither campaign could offer congratulations or issue a preemptive warning to the Republicans against using the marriage ruling as a wedge issue.

Presumptive Republican nominee John McCain is also avoiding the subject and "did not mention it in a speech he gave Thursday outlining what he wanted to do as president," notes The New York Times. McCain "is at a point in his campaign now where he is seeking to appeal to moderates and Democrats uncomfortable with Mr. Obama [and] emphasizing social issues would repel those groups."

"This year, the decision in California could at the very least have resonance with socially conservative voters in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Even if Mr. McCain does not wield it as part of his fall campaign—and his political associates said he almost certainly would not—history suggests that independent conservative advocacy groups would seize on the ruling to try to define Mr. Obama and his party as culturally out-of-step."

Ruling May Revive Gay Marriage Issue in Campaign [NYT]
Dems Offer Lackluster Marriage Remarks [Queerty]

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More OBAMA
More HILLARY CLINTON

Did You Read ... ?
CA Supreme Court Overturns Marriage Ban [R20]
Behind the Gay-Friendly Faces [The Advocate + PDF]
A Tale of Two Cities [The Advocate]
I Have a Dream ... Ticket [The Advocate] 
Democratic Debate Addresses Homopohobia, Race [R20]
Obama Snubs Clinton at SOTU [R20]
The Advocate: Clinton vs Obama [R20]
Obama Addresses Homophobia and Anti-Semitism [R20]
HRC/Logo Forum: Obama Conference Call [R20]
HRC/Logo Forum: Morning After [R20]
Obama Meets the Press to Discuss Gays [R20]
Obama on McClurkin to "The Advocate" [R20]
Hillary: The Advocate Interview [R20]
Obama Talks to "The Advocate" [R20]
Obama's "A More Perfect Union" Speech [R20]
Guest Commentary: Rod McCullom [Logo]
The Advocate: Clinton vs Obama [R20]
YearlyKos Day 3: Hillary Clinton [R20] 
Democrats Debate Homopohobia, Racism,HIV [R20]
Democratic Candidates Debate Gay Issues [R20]
Clinton Names Prominent Gay Supporters [R20]
Clinton, Edwards Oppose Surgeon General Nominee [R20]
Clinton Camp Targets Gay and Lesbian Donors [R20]
Obama: Not "Very Christian" to Criticize Gays [R20]
Obama Buys Ads in Gay Newspapers in TX, OH [R20]
Obama: Hospital Visitation for Gay Couples is "Not a Special Privilege" [R20]
Right-Wing Townhall.com: "Obama Would Be First Gay President!" [R20]

Kennedy Dismisses "Dream Ticket"

Democratic icon Ted Kennedy has done some great things in the Senate. On the other hand, he and John Kerry continue to demonstrate why they remain among the most divisive of the Democratic presidential losers.

Barack Obama isn't likely to pick rival Hillary Clinton as a running mate, according to one of his most prominent supporters. "I don't think it's possible," Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's "Political Capital With Al Hunt," airing this weekend.

Kennedy, 76, without naming names, said Obama should pick someone who "is in tune with his appeal for the nobler aspirations of the American people. If we had real leadership—as we do with Barack Obama—in the No. 2 spot as well, it'd be enormously helpful," Kennedy said.

Our last column in The Advocate strongly promoted the idea of the so-called "Dream Ticket", but, by now its clearly obvious this will never happen. If anything, the "dream" would be a nightmare. Obama is the likely nominee and should be free to choose a running mate who fit his style and agenda. Clinton on the ticket will not help the Obama brand. What would be the point? Obama boasted he "could get her voters" and she "couldn't" get his, but, as we said yesterday, his campaign and the media's dismissing of Clinton, her supporters, and, one half of the Democratic Party will only hurt Obama's chances in November—that is, assuming Kennedy, Kerry, Pelosi, Dean etc. actually want a Democrat to win the White House in November.

Oh, and Teddy lecturing on party unity is very amusing.

UPDATE: McCAIN!! and top surrogates now criticizing Obama campaign on "sexist" and "offensive" remarks toward Clinton. McCain surrogates also on CNN defending Clinton.

Obama Unlikely to Pick Clinton as Running Mate, Kennedy Says [Bloomberg]

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More OBAMA
More HILLARY CLINTON

Did You Read ... ?
Hillary Clinton's Next Step? [R20]
PA Primary Live Blog [R20]
PA Debate: Meltdown and the Morning After [R20]
Behind the Gay-Friendly Faces [The Advocate + PDF]
A Tale of Two Cities [The Advocate]
I Have a Dream ... Ticket [The Advocate]
Gallup: Clinton and Obama Now Tied [R20]
Gallup: Clintons Leads Obama 49 to 42 [R20]
Hillary Clinton's Big Night, Wins TX, OH and RI [R20]
Explaining Clinton's New Hampshire Victory [R20]
Super Tuesday Analysis [R20]
Ten Things Obama Can Do to Win Pennsylvania [HuffPo]
Yes, Virginia, There is Such a Thing as Post Racial Politics [Daily Voice]
Clinton and Obama Debate: "Meet Me in Ohio!" [R20]
Clinton Raises $35 Million, Debuts Security Ad [R20]
Explaining Clinton's New Hampshire Victory [R20]
Behind the Gay-Friendly Faces [Advocate + PDF]
Paging John Edwards and Barack Obama [HuffPo]
Barack Obama Should Tell Bob Novak... [HuffPo]
Welcome to the Campaign, Barack [HuffPo]
Rove on Obama: "Lazy" and "Basketball Playing" [R20]
The Advocate: Clinton vs Obama [R20]
Democratic Debate Addresses Homopohobia, Race [R20]
Obama Snubs Clinton at SOTU [R20]
The Advocate: Clinton vs Obama [R20]
Super Tuesday Analysis [R20]

Hillary Clinton's Next Step?

Hillary should do whatever she wants. She has earned it.

After Tuesday's night's resounding and racially polarized win in North Carolina, the Democratic presidential nomination is within the grasp of Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton was hoping for a "game changer" on Tuesday, a strong win in Indiana and a tighter result in North Carolina, and, just the opposite happened. The huge popular vote margin Clinton earned in Pennsylvania was wiped out by Obama's win in North Carolina. Clinton is behind in almost metric and her path to the nomination, which once seemed a foregone conclusion, has become a cliffwalk that almost defies gravity.

"The math" is not in Clinton's favor. So be it. There are only three remaining weeks in the primary roster and Clinton will continue to compete. Good for her. That tenacity is probably one of her Bill and Hillary Clinton's best qualities and this explains why so many Democratic presidential losers—Hart, Kerry, Kennedy, Dukakis, Richardson, Dodd, Dukakis!—have come out against them. Particularly amusing is George McGovern's "advice" for Clinton to drop out. Thankfully, this is not the tone adopted by Obama, who recognizes Clinton is favored to win West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico by sizable margins, and, apparently does not want to marginalize Clinton or the 16 million plus voters who supported her. Bravo. Obama is willing to wait three or four weeks and let the process play out. So should everyone else.

 

Most of the shrill and faux calls for "unity" and for Clinton to "drop out" are coming from the same repeat offenders who have threatened a race riot and engaged in a relentless smear campaign. Special mention goes to "progressive" bloggers, fellow "Democrats", cable "news" network MSNBC and black talk radio. They have perpetuated a breathtaking and fantastic virtual gangbang, a daily exercise in ridiculous racebaiting, lies, doctored videos, edited audio tapes, name-calling, offensive sexist jokes and double standards. Many of these "progressives" have  used discredited right-wing sources such as Bob Novak, headline writer Matt Drudge and anti-gay racist Rush Limbaugh as their assignment editors. Trash is trash, no matter who sweeps it up. If "bloggers" or "news" sources "report" doctored videos, blatant lies, inaccurate information, then everything they "report" is likely to be doctored, lies or inaccurate. It's called credibility, and, sadly, many self-described "progressives" and "Democrats" no longer have any.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama waged historic candidacies for the Democratic nomination. Only one of them could emerge as the winner. In the final weeks of the Democratic presidential primary, Clinton and her historic campaign should be allowed to continue its run, and, if needed, develop a graceful exit strategy. The same consideration would be given if she were ahead and Obama were behind. It's about fairness, its about decency, and, most of all, it's about respect.

More POLITICS
More HILLARY CLINTON

Did You Read ... ?
PA Primary Live Blog [R20]
PA Debate: Meltdown and the Morning After [R20]
Behind the Gay-Friendly Faces [The Advocate + PDF]
A Tale of Two Cities [The Advocate]
I Have a Dream ... Ticket [The Advocate]
Gallup: Clinton and Obama Now Tied [R20]
Gallup: Clintons Leads Obama 49 to 42 [R20]
Hillary Clinton's Big Night, Wins TX, OH and RI [R20]
Explaining Clinton's New Hampshire Victory [R20]
Super Tuesday Analysis [R20]
Ten Things Obama Can Do to Win Pennsylvania [HuffPo]
Yes, Virginia, There is Such a Thing as Post Racial Politics [Daily Voice]
Clinton and Obama Debate: "Meet Me in Ohio!" [R20]
Clinton Raises $35 Million, Debuts Security Ad [R20]
Explaining Clinton's New Hampshire Victory [R20]
Behind the Gay-Friendly Faces [Advocate + PDF]
Paging John Edwards and Barack Obama [HuffPo]
Barack Obama Should Tell Bob Novak... [HuffPo]
Welcome to the Campaign, Barack [HuffPo]
Rove on Obama: "Lazy" and "Basketball Playing" [R20]
The Advocate: Clinton vs Obama [R20]
Democratic Debate Addresses Homopohobia, Race [R20]
Obama Snubs Clinton at SOTU [R20]
The Advocate: Clinton vs Obama [R20]
Super Tuesday Analysis [R20]

 

Indiana and North Carolina Primary Live Blog

UPDATE: Having problems with connection

The first polls are closing in Indiana. Live blog begins.

The AP publishes the first exit polls.

CNN's Bill Schneider with exit polls on voters who say economy is important. In Indiana, Clinton leads with those voters 54% to 45%. In North Carolina, Obama leads with those voters, 52% to 44%.

18:15 CNN has first raw vote totals. Only 1% of the vote, Clinton leading by a hair, 64% to 36%, or 4048 to 2073, but no idea where these votes are from.

18:30 Live results from the Indiana Secretary of State.

Wolf Blitzer introduces "the best political team on TV," Jack Cafferty, Gloria Borger and Jeff Toobin. On the back bench, Republican strategist and gambling junkie Bill Bennett and "neutral" political analysts Donna Brazile and Roland Martin. This should be a fun night.

18:57 38,076 to 25,447 for Clinton. The polls are closing in Indiana Central Time counties. This includes NW Indiana, which is where Obama will have strong support.

Lou Dobbs now talking to "the best political team on tv." Roland Martin and Gloria Borger are discussing "the math" and "the rules."

19:15 Brazile: "If Obama survives tonight, he has weathered the storm," Brazille suggests. "If he can survive at least one state, he still wins." Martin also says that although Indiana is adjacent to Illinos, it is "overwhelmingly" and "white and blue collar" so an Obama loss is expected. Interesting,

19:32 No surprise. CNN PROJECTS OBAMA WINS NORTH CAROLINA

20:40 UPDATE NC Obama leads 63%, 330,000 to 194,000

20:45 63% of Indiana pcts. Clinton leads 419,000 to 360,000.

21:00 CBS NEWS PROJECTS CLINTON WINS INDIANA

21:08 Lake County (Gary, Hammond, etc) and Porter (Valpo) are not in yet. CBS has called IN for Clinton, and the returns are tightening (53-47), but these counties will probably have big totals for Obama. That might be a problem.

21:10 Barack and Michelle Obama walking into rally in Raleigh.

McCain Blasts "Activist Judges", Praises Roberts, Alito, Rehnquist

Republican presidential heir apparent Sen. John McCain offers an olive branch to the Christian right. Speaking at Wake Forest University in North Carolina, the Arizona Republican blasted Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama for not voting for the confirmation of John Roberts to be Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

"Obama likes to talk up his background...as someone who can work across the aisle to get things done. But when Judge Roberts was nominated, it seemed to bring out more the lecturer in Senator Obama than it did the guy who can get things done. He went right along with the partisan crowd, and was among the 22 senators to vote against this highly qualified nominee," McCain said.

"Apparently, nobody quite fits the bill for an elite group of activist judges, lawyers, and law professors who think they know wisdom when they see it—and they see it only in each other," McCain.

The Arizona Republican indicted the entire federal court system for he sees as its embrace of judicial activism ..  citing a Missouri death penalty case, an eminent domain case in Connecticut, and a case which challenged the words "Under God" in the pledge of allegiance", and, to remedy this, he said he would appoint jurists such as Roberts, Alito, and "my friend, the late [former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court] William Rehnquist."

McCain contrasted Obama's vote with his own history, noting that when President Bill Clinton nominated  Justices Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsberg he "voted for their confirmation" because "it would have been petty, and partisan, and disingenuous to insist otherwise." McCain's revisionist history neglected to mention the Republican Senate's history of holding Clinton's judicial nominees hostage, but, oh well.

Sen. Hillary Clinton also voted against Roberts, although McCain focused his criticism on Obama.

Criticizing "activist judges" is red meat for the right wing base. The Arizona Republican has always had problems with the Christian right and needs to energize them for his nomination. These talking points will probably score him a few points from the evangelicals. There are three SCOTUS justices who are more than 80-years-old, all were appointed by Democrats, and, all will probably step down soon. However, if McCain were to get elected, he'd have to contend with a likely Democratic majority in the Senate.

McCain Criticizes 'Activist Judges'  [ABC News]

More POLITICS
More JOHN McCAIN

You May Want to Read ...
DNC Debuts First Ad Against McCain [R20]
McCain Will "Criticize" Obama's "Elitist" Comments [R20]
McCain in Memphis: "Wrong" to Oppose Holiday [R20]
Republican Senators Block Stiumulus Package [R20]
McCain Targets Romney with Anti-Gay Robo-calls [R20]
NH Voters Targeted by Anti-Mormon "Push Polls" [R20]
Romney, McCain Offer More Anti-Gay Rhetoric [R20]
McCain Flip-Flops on Gay Rights [R20]
McCain Promotes Abstinence [R20]
McCain Hires Producer of Racist Ads [R20]
McCain Flip-Flops on Gay Rights [R20]
Yes But No—But Yes [R20]
McCain: Not "Catering" to Far Right [R20]
McCain Promotes Abstinence [R20]
McCain's MLK Day: "Pandering" to Racists [R20]
McCain Wins Republican Nomination [R20]
McCain Camp Enlists Racist Shock Jock [R20]

Preview: NC and IN Primaries

The polls are open in Indiana and North Carolina on this mini Super Tuesday. At stake are a total of 187 pledged delegates—115 in North Carolina and 72 in Indiana. CNN and cable "news" network MSNBC have been hyping these contests as "close", but, according to the trends we reported for two weeks, tonights likely outcome should come as no surprise, ie Hillary Clinton holds her Election Night rally in Indianapolis, while Barack Obama holds his in Raleigh. Clinton says tonight could be a "game changer" and she could be right if one candidate significantly exceeds expectations.

Given the demographics of the North Carolina Democratic electorate—one third black, disproportionately younger, many students, well educated liberal voters in the Research Triangle—the state is tailor made for an Obama victory. If Obama can hold his onto his coalition with a strong win, he will breath a sigh of relief. On the other hand, Clinton has made a strong push in small towns and for the NASCAR dads and, it will should be  interesting to see tonight's electoral maps. Previous polls showed Obama with a 20 to 25 point lead. Obama will probably finish with ten or more. Less than that will cause some handwringing.

There are also a gubernatorial contest in North Carlina. The state's Republican party has run an ugly ad linking both Democratic candidates, who support Obama, to Rev. Jeremiah Wright and and his incendiary sermons. Jim Neal, an openly gay candidate, is also running in the Democratic primary for the US Senate. 

The real contest will be in Indiana, which Obama recently called the "tie breaker.". Earlier this year, the Obama campaign forecast a 7 percent victory in Indiana. That will not happen and should cause some concern. Northwestern Indiana is adjacent to Chicago and is practically a suburb, and, a quarter of the state's Democratic electorate is in the Chicago media market. These people know Obama very well (plus) but they have been over-saturated with nonstop Rev. Jeremiah Wright coverage (negative) from local television. Obama should do quite well in counties with high numbers of black voters (Indianapolis, Lake, etc) and university towns (Bloomington) but will have to show strength with white voters and across the state. Since Wisconsin and Virginia in February, the Illinois senator has not won significant numbers of white voters, and, as we have mentioned many times, remains the key test of his candidacy. Clinton will probably finish in the high single digits.